Weekly Market Commentary

The Noble Weekly Review

Week of September 28 – October 2, 2026  •  Published October 6, 2026

Market Scorecard — Last Week

Gabe's Weekly Perspective

Last week I told you I thought rates would come down, and that this tightening cycle was aimed at the wrong problem. I also told you the strongest argument against me was that the economy looked too strong. On Friday that argument got considerably weaker. Hiring came in far below expectations, unemployment ticked up, and the Fed Chair said out loud more or less what I had argued the week before. I want to walk through what moved in my direction, and also the one important thing that did not.

Moving Higher

Under Pressure

What Moved Markets Last Week

The Jobs Report Changed the Conversation

The September employment report landed Friday and it was weak. Employers added 29,000 jobs against expectations closer to 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and August's figure was revised down to 133,000. One month is never conclusive and these numbers get revised again, so I am not going to overstate it. But last week the case for continued rate increases rested heavily on the idea that the economy was running hot. A report like this makes that harder to argue.

The market responded immediately. Traders now put roughly a 77% probability on the Federal Reserve leaving rates alone at its October meeting. A December increase is still considered likely, so this is not a reversal, but the direction of travel moved toward the view I laid out last week.

The Fed Chair Made the Argument For Me

The more striking development was what came from the Fed itself. Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that higher long term yields could substitute for additional rate increases. That is close to word for word the case I made in last week's letter, when I pointed to late 2023 as the precedent where rising yields did the Fed's tightening for it and the Fed then stopped. Having the current Chair articulate the same mechanism is a meaningful signal about how this committee is thinking.

Oil Is Finally Cooperating

The third piece concerns energy, which has been the center of my argument that this inflation is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. Despite the rejected proposal reported the previous Friday, there was real progress during the week toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and reporting indicated the administration was willing to discuss sanctions relief and frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps. Oil responded, with West Texas crude settling below $93 a barrel after spending recent months above $100. Traders remain skeptical given how many false starts there have been, and skepticism is warranted. But if energy prices keep falling, the inflation picture improves for reasons that have nothing to do with the Fed.

Now the Part That Did Not Go My Way

I would be doing you a disservice if I only reported the news that supports my view. The long end of the bond market went against me last week. The ten year Treasury yield rose about five basis points to 5.281% and the thirty year reached 5.629%, the highest levels since 2002. Long term Treasuries fell another 1.49%, on top of the nearly 3% decline the week before. This was part of a global bond selloff that pushed yields to twenty four year highs.

That deserves an honest reading. Weak employment data and falling oil would normally bring long term yields down, and they did not. What that suggests is that the long end is being driven by something other than the near term path of Fed policy, most likely the sheer volume of government borrowing and what investors now demand to hold long dated debt. My view on the Fed is looking better than it did a week ago. My view that rates broadly come down has not yet shown up where it would matter most to a bond portfolio.

Underneath the Index

The S&P finished up 0.17%, which again understates the movement underneath. Microsoft gained 2.39%, Amazon 1.98% and Nvidia 1.83%, so the artificial intelligence names continue to attract money. Meta fell 2.93%, though that deserves context: the stock rose roughly 27% over the course of September, so giving back under 3% in the first week of October is profit taking rather than anything breaking. JPMorgan fell 2.76% and has now been under pressure for several consecutive weeks, which remains the clearest sign that something in the financial sector is not sitting comfortably with this rate environment.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

If you own bonds, the past two weeks have been uncomfortable and your statement will show it. That is the honest truth and I am not going to dress it up. What I would add is that the same move has pushed forward looking yields to their most attractive levels in more than two decades, and for anyone who needs to generate income, that is a genuinely better starting point than we have had in a long time.

I gave you a forecast last week and I am tracking it in public, including the part that is not working. That is the standard I think you should hold us to. The portfolios we build are not constructed around my being right, and if you would like to walk through how yours is positioned, particularly on the bond side, this is a good time for that conversation.

On the Radar — October 5 – 9

• Wednesday, October 7
  AfterNext Acquisition I Corp. (AFNXU) IPO (Price: $10.00)
• Tuesday, October 13
  Citigroup (C) earnings(Est. EPS: $2.73)
• Tuesday, October 13
  Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $15.05)
• Tuesday, October 13
  JPMorgan (JPM) earnings(Est. EPS: $5.92)
• Tuesday, October 13
  Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $1.88)
• Wednesday, October 14
  Bank of America (BAC) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $1.16)
• Wednesday, October 14
  Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $3.17)
• Thursday, October 15
  Charles Schwab (SCHW) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $1.70)