Weekly Market Commentary

The Noble Weekly Review

Week of July 20 – 24, 2026  •  Published July 27, 2026

Market Scorecard — Last Week

Gabe's Weekly Perspective

It was a noisy week. Futures surged Monday on Iran ceasefire news and gave it all back by Friday. Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all sold off hard. If you watched the tape every day, it felt like a rough market. But when I zoom out, the picture looks different to me. Breadth is widening. The sector rotation tells me capital is still moving around the market, not out of it. Earnings across the big technology names have been solid — that is the fundamental story, and it has not changed. The volatility is real, but so is the bull market underneath it. Weeks like this are exactly why we build portfolios the way we do — so that when the headlines are loud, your financial plan does not have to react to every one of them.

Moving Higher

Under Pressure

What Moved Markets Last Week

The Week Started With Hope

Futures opened sharply higher on Monday after the US and Iran announced a 2-day pause in hostilities. Markets responded exactly as you would expect — any signal that geopolitical pressure is easing tends to lift sentiment quickly. But by Friday, that relief had evaporated. The S&P 500 finished the week down 1.2%, the Nasdaq down 1.5%. The ceasefire optimism lasted about as long as a Monday morning.

This is the environment we are in right now. Headline news — geopolitics, interest rate signals, earnings surprises — is creating large swings in both directions. That kind of volatility can feel unsettling. But it is important to separate the noise from the signal.

Look Past the Headlines — The Bull Market Is Intact

When I look past the week-to-week noise, I see a bull market that is very much alive. Market breadth is actually widening — meaning more stocks and more sectors are participating, not fewer. That is a healthy sign. A market running on a handful of names is fragile. A market where financials, industrials, healthcare, and energy are all participating alongside technology is a market with real structural support.

This week's data tells that story directly. JPMorgan (+2.4%) and Nvidia (+1.4%) were the standouts while several large-cap tech names sold off. The money is not leaving the market — it is rotating. Financials are holding up as rate expectations firm. Industrials and energy have been quietly accumulating as investors look for value outside of concentrated growth. That kind of rotation is not a warning sign. It is what healthy markets do.

The Mag 7 Is Consolidating, Not Collapsing

The largest technology names have pulled back meaningfully in recent weeks. After the run they have had, some consolidation is completely normal — and in many cases, healthy. Importantly, the underlying earnings story has not deteriorated. Recent results across the group have been strong, and that gives me more confidence in the longer-term thesis, not less.

Last week I published a mid-week special on Alphabet and Tesla earnings — the bull and bear case for both names, and why I remain bullish on both. If you missed it, you can read it here: Earnings Spotlight: Alphabet & Tesla. (A note: some readers experienced a formatting issue with that article when it first went live — that has since been fixed.) More significant earnings are coming in the weeks ahead, and I may publish another special edition as results come in.

The Fed Meets This Week — Watch What Warsh Signals

The FOMC meets July 29–30, and this is the last scheduled meeting until September. A rate hold is widely expected. But the decision itself is almost secondary. What matters is what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals about the path ahead.

Warsh, who took over as Chair in May 2026, has been clear: inflation at 3.5% is not close enough to the 2% target to ease policy. He has also signaled his intention to move away from the Fed's long-standing practice of forward guidance — the dot plots and carefully worded statements that markets have relied on to anticipate future moves. That shift matters. For years, investors could read the Fed's next move with reasonable confidence. Under Warsh, that clarity is fading. Markets will need to be more comfortable sitting with uncertainty about where rates are headed — and that adjustment is still playing out.

On the Radar — July 27 – 31

• Thursday, July 30
  Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) IPO (Price: $21.00-25.00)
• Thursday, July 30
  Reformation Inc. (REF) IPO (Price: $15.00-17.00)
• Tuesday, August 4
  AMD (AMD) earnings — after the close(Est. EPS: $1.63)
• Tuesday, August 4
  Arista Networks (ANET) earnings — after the close(Est. EPS: $0.90)
• Wednesday, August 5
  Disney (DIS) earnings — after the close(Est. EPS: $1.88)
• Thursday, August 6
  Datadog (DDOG) earnings — before the open(Est. EPS: $0.60)